PUNTERS are backing a clear favourite in Bowman, but the neighbouring seat of Bonner is shaping up as one of the Federal Election’s most hotly contested battlegrounds, with odds tightening ahead of Saturday’s poll.
Sportsbet has installed Liberal National MP Henry Pike as the unbackable favourite in Bowman, slashing his odds to just $1.01 to retain the Redlands-based seat.
Mr Pike, who first won the electorate in 2022, is sitting on a comfortable two-party-preferred margin of 55.5 per cent.
His main challenger, Labor newcomer Darcy Brown, is a long shot at $12, while Greens candidate Kristie Lockhart and independent Shaun Holloway are each listed at $21.
Despite a strong local campaign focusing on housing, healthcare, and environmental protection, the betting markets suggest an upset is highly unlikely.
Over in Bonner, however, the contest is far less certain – and punters are keeping a close watch.
LNP incumbent Ross Vasta, who has held the seat since 2010, remains the favourite at $1.11, but Labor’s Kara Cook is firming as a threat, now priced at $5.25.
With a margin of just 3.4 per cent, Bonner is one of the most marginal seats in the country, and any swing could tip the result.
The Greens’ Wen Li is a rank outsider at $26, but preference flows could prove crucial if the contest goes down to the wire.
Political analysts and betting markets agree while Bowman appears all but decided, Bonner could go either way.
Issues shaping voter sentiment include cost-of-living pressures, traffic congestion, and climate change.
Strong early voting turnout in both electorates has added to the anticipation ahead of what could be a nail-biting finish – especially in Bonner, where the result may influence the broader outcome of who forms government in Canberra.
