TPP shows ONP edge in Bowman while Labor holds Bonner in bayside battleground
A NEW breakdown of primary and two-candidate preferred figures has reinforced Bowman as a key federal battleground, with One Nation leading both the primary vote and projected final count in the LNP-held seat.
The DemosAU modelling shows One Nation leading the primary vote in Bowman with 32 per cent, ahead of Labor on 25 per cent and the LNP on 24 per cent, with the Greens on 11 per cent and others on 8 per cent.
On a two-candidate preferred (TPP) basis, the seat is projected to favour One Nation 52 per cent to 48 per cent over Labor, placing Bowman in the “lean ONP” category and signalling a potential upset in the Redlands electorate.
The figures point to a three-cornered contest, with One Nation well placed to reach the final count and reshape the traditional Labor–LNP contest.
In neighbouring Bonner, Labor leads the primary vote on 33 per cent, with the LNP and One Nation tied on 24 per cent each, the Greens on 12 per cent and others on 7 per cent.
That translates to a projected TPP result of 56 per cent to 44 per cent in Labor’s favour over One Nation, indicating the seat remains relatively secure for the party despite the broader minor party surge.
The results form part of a major national poll of more than 8,400 voters conducted between January and March 2026, using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) to estimate outcomes in all 150 electorates.
Nationally, the modelling points to a dramatic political shift, with One Nation projected to win between 46 and 55 seats — potentially overtaking the Coalition as the main opposition force.
DemosAU Director of Research George Hasanakos said the results highlighted a major realignment in voter sentiment, particularly in outer suburban and growth areas.
“This is the most comprehensive poll conducted since the 2025 election and shows the Coalition would be relegated to the crossbench if an election were held today,” he said.
“Based on this model, One Nation would become the major opposition party, capturing all of the National Party’s electorates and most of those held by the Liberals.”
Mr Hasanakos said the surge was especially evident in areas like Brisbane’s bayside, where economic pressures and population growth were reshaping political loyalties.
“We also see One Nation making inroads in the Labor vote in the urban fringes of several capital cities including Brisbane,” he said.
“Labor is dominant in the inner to middle rings of capital cities but would have a fight on their hands in those urban fringes and in regional seats on these numbers.”
With Bowman leaning towards One Nation on both primary and TPP measures, and Bonner holding firm for Labor, the polling positions Brisbane’s bayside as a critical frontline in an increasingly volatile federal contest.
